Monday, June 18, 2007

Retail Sales Explained

From Hank Greenberg:

Big boost in May retail sales? Consumer not really hurt? High gas prices irrelevant. How's this for an explanation? Tax refunds. Now, back to your regularly scheduled programming.


Wow -- something I totally overlooked along with just about every other analyst out there. And a really good point.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Yeah, sure helped me out...

Watch out for this hurricane season, things are going to get nasty.

Anonymous said...

Well... that's what seasonal adjustments and YoY comparisons are supposed to do.

If Greenberg is right, then refunds should be exceptionally large. As I keep reminding people, look for a consistent overall picture, because the data is unreliable.

Charles of MercRising
http://www.phoenixwoman.wordpress.com